In keeping with the general observation that in politics, as in life,
“things don’t change more than they do change”…
what can we expect in 2018 in terms of our national politics?
These are my Top 10 predictions for 2018:
- The Mueller investigation will come to a close. If indictments are handed down, there will probably be pardons. As to the President, it will come down to “what did he know and when did he know it”… much like the facts surrounding the Nixon-Watergate scandal. However, unlike Nixon, I can’t envision our current President getting on a helicopter on the South Lawn of the White House and quietly leaving town.
- I see more Democratic involvement on Capitol Hill. The Republicans already have one seat less in the U.S. Senate and the tough issues of passing a budget are not going to get any easier. The Tea Party Republicans will stop supporting Continuing Resolutions to fund the government, and so the President will have to reach out to Democrats in order to keep the government running.
- Infrastructure legislation will pass, but it will not have a lot of money tied to it. Since we have already gone into debt another 1½ Trillion dollars for tax cuts… there just will not be enough money to do much of anything else other than support the ongoing existing obligations of the federal government.
- The Democrats will have a chance of winning back both the House and the Senate, but it will be a lot closer than people think. There aren’t that many “swing” seats and as observed above… our politics tend to change slowly.
- There will be some key elections around the country including the Governorship of New York. New York’s current Governor would like to run for President and so needs a strong re-election. If a viable Republican emerges in the race for Governor, Mr. Cuomo might decide that a path to the White House is more probable if he does not run for re-election.
- There will undoubtedly be some big event or events which will dominate the political debate. In 2017, the news was headlined in many ways by weather… the hurricanes in the country and in Puerto Rico, and the fires in California. We will be paying for those costs for many years to come. Yet, we can deal with calamities from mother-nature a lot easier than we can an outbreak of war someplace in the world that would drag us into a major conflict.
- There will be more proposals on getting the new Wall built along the Mexican border… but I don’t see a major construction start. There will continue to be more restrictions in international travel which will reduce immigration but hopefully not American engagement in the world at large.
- China will continue to become a larger factor on the international stage.
- I believe that the politics of the country will move more toward the center. People have had enough polarization and in “in your face” political engagement. After a while it becomes like an ongoing fight within a family… you just get tired of it and want a return to comity and normal discourse. In the end, Americans will find a way to work together.
- And finally, I predict that in 2018 the Buffalo Bills will make the play-offs!
Stow, NY
