Post-Journal
Wars Are Hard To Manage
JUL 1, 2023
ROLLAND KIDDER
I noted some time ago in this space that wars are easy
to start but difficult to end. Vladimir Putin is also finding out that they are
hard to manage.
Recently, one of his primary underlings, a thug by the
name of Prigozhin, broke ranks and for a day or two was advancing on Moscow
with his troops called the “Wagner Group.” Wagner is the name
given to a large force of private mercenaries who have undertaken strong-arm
action on behalf of Russia in places like Syria and Africa. They had also, most
recently, been the primary Russian force attacking Ukraine in the Bakhmut area.
The problem for Putin is that Prigozhin, a protoge of
his who started his criminal enterprise under the guidance of Putin, got a
bit “big for his britches” and resisted when his troops were told that they
would have to become a part of the Russian Army. The Wagner Group despises the
Russian military command and looks upon the Russian Army as second rate.
Putin probably could have controlled things if he had
limited Wagner’s influence to special overseas operations. But, by giving them
a leading role in attacking Ukraine…he emboldened them. Now, “the chickens have come home to roost.” The Russian leader created a competing force to
his own military and, thus, is reaping the fruits of his own making.
It is difficult to say how all of this will play out.
Putin over-played his hand, but Prigozhin and his Wagner Group also had to pull
back. They just weren’t strong enough to take on the whole Russian military
machine.
A sad thing about war is that it is not only cruel and
devastating–it is also unpredictable. In his self-imposed isolation as the
kingpin of Russia, no one seemed to be more surprised by the mutiny of the
Wagner forces than Vladimir Putin.
Some commentators believe that Prigozhin is a “walking dead man,” and that it is only a matter of time before Putin takes him out.
But, Putin, himself, is now tarnished in the eyes of his own people. As the
Wagner Group marched on Moscow–Putin came out from hiding and made a direct
appeal to the Russian people to resist. That didn’t embellish his strong-man,
don’t worry, “I’m totally in charge” persona. He has now become more vulnerable
politically.
Some prognosticators believe that all of this will help
Ukraine. But, in my view, it is too early to tell if it will change anything on
the battlefield. Ukraine, thus far, has not been able to crash through the
bunkers, trenches and minefields that Russia has built in the eastern part of
its country. Ukraine needs to push on for another 60-80 miles to the Sea of
Azov and cut-off Russian land access to Crimea if its offensive is to be
successful.
From the standpoint of the democracies of the world,
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must be stopped and, hopefully, that can happen
without it becoming a worldwide conflict that sucks everybody in. In the
meantime, the war rolls on as a giant wave of unpredictability worrying and
affecting all of us.
Rolland Kidder is a Stow resident and a Vietnam
veteran.
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